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However, many poor households are still experiencing food gaps or engaging in crisis livelihoods coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Coronavirus - Kenya: COVID-19 updates (7 December 2020) Coronavirus - Zambia: Daily status update (7th December 2020) Armée and Schmid Blend Experience and Youth for Team Qhubeka ASSOS Somalia has declared a national emergency in response to the crisis. Even without war, the large locust damage had already put many of those farmers on a path towards famine if no food aid would reach them in time. The February to September 2020 most likely food security outcomes are based on the following national-level assumptions: Pastoral area outcomes: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be sustained in most pastoral livelihood zones throughout the scenario period, and many poor households who are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Northwestern, Northern, and Northeastern Pastoral areas are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Swarms of these migratory pests are destroying crops and vegetation in East Africa, resulting in loss of food and income for local families. Northeastern Pastoral Livelihood Zone in Mandera County, Boosting of security in the Kenya-Somalia border zones by the national security agencies. In Marsabit, for example, retaliatory attacks in response to cattle rustling in parts of North Horr sub-county recently led to temporary closures of markets and primary schools and displaced about 150 households. Most livestock have remained close to homesteads in the wet season grazing areas and have not migrated to typical dry season grazing areas. Improved livestock productivity and high terms of trade are most likely to prevent most households from experiencing food consumption gaps throughout the lean season. Labor demand may also be driven by farm-level control efforts to spray or scare away desert locusts. When there is a severe lack of food many people will die of starvation, but between starvation and death there is nearly always disease. [1] Tropical Livestock Units are livestock numbers converted to a common unit. However, some exceptions exist, such as in Isiolo, where livestock holdings are lowest (2 TLUs) and milk production is one liter per household per day on average. As a result, livestock migration is broadly expected to occur at below-normal levels during the June to September dry season. The lowest acute malnutrition prevalence was observed in Saku and Moyale sub counties in Marsabit at ‘Alert’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) levels. Based on historical trends and given that milk availability will remain high, ‘Acceptable’ levels will likely be sustained throughout the scenario period. Based on current milk production levels of 2-7 liters per day, the typical poor household is likely consuming some goat or cow milk several days per week. The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine … The strong rainy season that took place between March and May 2020 resulted in massive flooding and landslides that affected 233,000 people and left 116,000 displaced. Increased security could lead to re-opening of the border, which would likely improve Kenya-Somalia cross-border trade by increasing both the demand and supply of livestock and staple foods, respectively. These factors would lead to an increase in household income and consequently their food access, maintaining an area classification of Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, as anticipated in October due to funding constraints, WFP cut rations down to 70 percent of daily kilocalorie needs and this will persist throughout the scenario period. Infographic on famine and health jpg, 91… Based on data collected during the 2019 short rains assessment, the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) estimates that 1.3 million Kenyans are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, a decline of nearly 50 percent compared to the preceding long rains season. Although FEWS NET cross-border monitoring data indicate that maize imports into Kenya during the fourth quarter of 2019 accounted for 12 percent of total regional imports, imports have not filled the national cereal gap. The number of people discovered across the world to be hungry is roughly above 800 million.. ; In Africa, the discovered number of hungry masses is above 255 million. When a person's immune system is weak, it becomes more susceptible to diseases that can be fatal. Ongoing desert locust breeding is expected to result in the formation of new swarms in March/April in grasslands and croplands in central, northern, and eastern Kenya, which coincides with the vegetative stage in bimodal cropping areas. The below-average rainfall forecasted for late 2020 and early 2021 due to La Niña are expected to drive food insecurity, increase water scarcity and give rise to disease outbreaks. Despite high maize prices, household purchasing power as measured by the goat-to-maize terms of trade is broadly favorable due to high livestock prices, benefitting poor households with saleable livestock. NDMA price data in February showed that the retail price of maize was 14-33 percent above the five-year average in most reference markets; exceptions included markets in Kwale county, where the price of a kg of maize was near average, and markets in Turkana county, where the price was 16 percent below average due to sufficient supply flows from source markets in Trans Nzoia county. The number of hungry people in Asia is roughly 515 million. Birth and conception levels have generally returned to normal among small stock, but births among large stock remain below normal as they have only recently fully recovered. Despite lower livestock holdings, milk production has rebounded from the drought, reflecting good birth levels and body conditions. However, the bimodal long rains harvest in July/August is most likely to be near average due to the likelihood of crop losses in marginal agricultural areas from desert locust. Of greatest concern are pockets of households that are experiencing food gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) within Northwestern, Northern, and Northeastern Pastoral livelihood zone. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, and irrigated areas of Mandera Riverine livelihood zone, where the loss of some agricultural labor income during the floods and relatively lower terms of trade is constraining households’ ability to meet their non-food needs. In Samburu, recurring communal and resource-based conflicts also periodically limit access to forage and water for livestock and impede market operations in Baragoi. Due to the loss of household food and income sources, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisted through December in many areas. In addition, the floods killed an estimated 30,000 heads of livestock. Although floods in late 2019 caused crop and livestock losses, the above-average 2019 short rains season led to favorable harvests in most marginal agricultural areas as well as above-average livestock sale values and milk productivity. According to NDMA sentinel site data, more than 80 percent of households in the southeast reported an acceptable food consumption score (FCS). 15, 2020 , 1:45 PM. NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations humanitarian office is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene." A second wave of breeding is expected in June. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. 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